Over 109 million to travel by auto during holiday season.
A record 122.4 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home during the year-end holiday period, with lower gas prices and increased driving risk combining to create what analysts say will be one of the busiest and most dangerous travel seasons on record.
AAA’s forecast projects a 2.2% increase over last year’s record 119.7 million travelers during the 13-day period from Dec. 20 through Jan. 1.
Of those travelers, 109.5 million will drive, a 2% increase over 2024, accounting for 89% of all holiday travel. The remaining 8.03 million will fly, marking the first time domestic air travelers have exceeded 8 million during the year-end period, while 4.9 million will travel by bus, train or cruise.
“Year-end travel is a mix of family road trips, friend getaways, and tropical vacations,” said Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel. “Holiday celebrations look different for everyone, but a common thread is the desire to travel, whether it’s returning to your hometown or exploring new destinations.”
Gas Prices at Four-Year Low
Drivers will pay less at the pump than at any point in four years. The national average fell 5 cents last week to $2.94 per gallon, according to AAA data released Dec. 11. Prices have remained below $3 since hitting $2.99 on Dec. 2, compared with the $3.04 national average that closed out 2024.
West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $58.46 per barrel Wednesday, with U.S. crude inventories at 425.7 million barrels — about 4% below the five-year average.
State prices range from $4.44 in Hawaii and $4.41 in California to $2.36 in Oklahoma and $2.51 in Texas. Pennsylvania’s average stands at $3.17.
Claims Data Shows Winter Driving Risk
While lower fuel prices and record travel numbers may benefit consumers, data from Allstate shows the holiday period presents elevated collision risk.
Allstate’s Holiday Driver Report, also released Tuesday, analyzed claims data, trip patterns and roadside events to identify when and where crash risk increases.
The analysis found that Madison, Wisconsin, drops 128 spots in safety rankings during winter months — from 9th nationally to 137th. Florida has five of the 10 cities most affected by winter driving conditions, including Gainesville, which falls 97 spots, and Tallahassee, down 86.
“Winter driving risks can change overnight,” said Brian Tidwell, an Allstate safety expert.
Warm-weather destinations see significant surges in out-of-state drivers during the holidays, according to Allstate’s analysis of 2 million Drivewise customers. Phoenix traffic from out-of-state vehicles increases 94% over typical levels, while Orlando rises 75%, Tampa 56% and Jacksonville 47%.
Allstate’s Drivewise data identified when dangerous driving behaviors spike:
Phone handling is worst on New Year’s Eve, up 10%, particularly late at night. Speeding jumps 10% the weekend before Christmas, with many drivers exceeding the limit by 15 mph or more. Hard braking peaks midday on Christmas Eve, up 13%, as last-minute shoppers create congestion.
The day after Christmas consistently generates the highest volume of roadside service calls of the year, according to Allstate. Tow distances are longest on Christmas Day, averaging up to 15 miles.
AAA responded to more than 860,000 emergency roadside assistance calls during the 2024 year-end period, helping drivers with dead batteries, flat tires and empty fuel tanks.