Personal auto insurance net written premiums are forecast to decline 0.6% in 2026, the line’s second-lowest annual growth rate in more than 15 years behind only 2020, according to the latest members-only Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View webinar from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman.
The 2026 forecast is 4.6 percentage points below personal auto’s 2025 premium growth. The line remains profitable, with a 2026 net combined ratio forecast at 95.5. A combined ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting gain.
Personal auto premiums fund most collision repair claims, and a shrinking premium base gives insurers less
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