Agency projects U.S. retail gasoline will average $3.88 per gallon this year and diesel $4.76.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects retail regular gasoline to average $3.88 per gallon in 2026, a 25% increase from 2025, as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to constrain global oil supplies, the agency said in its May Short-Term Energy Outlook released May 12.
The forecast, under the assumption shipping is blocked through the end of May, underscores the cascading effect of disrupted Persian Gulf oil flows on U.S. drivers, fleet operators and the collision repair claims environment. Sustained higher
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