New Vehicle Sales Expected to Cool in June After Spring Surge

While down month over month, sales are expected to come in above June 2024. Annual sales forecast increased.

New-vehicle sales are expected to slow in June following a spring surge driven by tariff concerns, according to a forecast from Cox Automotive released Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate is projected to reach 15.3 million vehicles in June, down from May’s 15.6 million pace but up from last June’s 15.0 million level. Sales volume is forecast to drop 6.3% from last year and 15.2% from last month.

Despite the June slowdown, second-quarter sales are expected to finish nearly 2% higher year-over-year at 4.18 million units, driven by strong April and May results.

“The sales forecast is showing a cooler market in June, as consumers face tighter inventory levels and reluctance on the part of most dealers to add big discounts,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “Much of the pull-ahead demand that fired up sales in April and May has now been satiated, so consumer demand is expected to be weaker in the coming months.”

The Atlanta-based automotive services company cited consumer price sensitivity as a key factor. “Buyers are price-sensitive right now. As more tariffed products replace existing inventory over the summer, prices are expected to trend higher, leading to slower sales in the coming months,” Chesbrough said.

Cox Automotive raised its full-year forecast to 15.7 million vehicles from 15.6 million, though that remains below its initial 2025 projection of 16.3 million and represents a slight decline from 2024 results.

General Motors is expected to lead sales growth in the first half of 2025, with units projected above 1.4 million, up more than 12% from last year. The five largest automakers by volume — GM, Toyota, Ford, Hyundai and Honda — are all expected to gain market share this year.

“The big winner in the first half of 2025 has to be General Motors,” Chesbrough said. “Despite all the challenges, GM’s sales are expected to finish above 1.4 million units, up more than 12% from last year. Double-digit growth across all GM brands fueled the success. Hyundai, too, had a strong first half and is expected to improve further this year.”

June has 24 selling days, two fewer than last year and three fewer than May, contributing to the expected volume decline.