Continued uncertainty on inflation and the economy weighs on consumers.
Consumer sentiment in early October is essentially unchanged at 1.2 index points above September, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The preliminary result was in spite of a 23% improvement in current buying conditions for durables owing to an easing in supply constraints.
Consumer sentiment is viewed as a leading indicator of economic activity and sharp declines have often preceded or happened during the early point of recessions.
The chart above shows the Consumer Sentiment Index for the past 50 years. The gray vertical bars indicate recessions.
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