Preliminary results for September 2018 from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers shows second largest rise since 2004, only behind March 2018 reading.
Consumer sentiment posted a robust rise in early September, reaching 100.8, the second highest level since 2004-only behind the March 2018 reading of 101.4. According to the University of Michigan (UM) survey preliminary results for September, the gains were widespread across all major socioeconomic subgroups. The UM Expectations Index reached its highest level since July 2004, largely due to more favorable prospects for jobs and incomes.
Despite a lessening of expected gains in nominal incomes in September, inflation expectations also declined, acting to offset concerns about declining living standards. Consumers anticipated continued growth in the economy that would produce more jobs and an even lower unemployment rate during the year ahead.
While consumers were somewhat more likely to anticipate that the economic expansion would continue uninterrupted over the next five years, nearly as many expected another downturn sometime in the next five years. The largest problem cited on the economic horizon involved the anticipated negative impact from tariffs. Concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on the domestic economy were spontaneously mentioned by nearly one-third of all consumers in the past three months, up from one-in-five in the prior four months.
The final statistics for the month will be available September 28th.